The Sector You’ve Never Touched is a 10 Bagger, but Not Like That (First Post on Critical Minerals, Feb 21, 2025)

A few days ago, I saw the DD posted on WSB about the mining industry. The OP of this post was right to point out that the mining sector is due for a massive run and I appreciated the attention they drew to the qualities of a high return opportunity.  However, their recommendation was mostly to invest in mining related to GOLD! Reading that was like watching one set the dining table beautifully, only to proceed to mistake the appetizer for the main dish.

Today I’m going to provide further evidence for the case that the mining industry presents a massive opportunity on a timescale anywhere from right now to the end of Trump’s term. The investments that are going to make you rich, however, have nothing to do with gold, per se, and everything to do with titanium, lithium, rare earth minerals, and the complete market dominance China has over their processing and extraction.

Part I: Ukraine, Greenland, Russia, and the Allied Supply Chain

Why does Trump care so much about Greenland? Why is he so insistent on Ukraine signing away 50% of their claim to Ukraine’s minerals and, if that matters so much, why did he cut Ukraine out from the opening negotiations with Russia?

The answer is that it's all about the supply chain of minerals and metals. China is bending us over the table with their grip over the chain (80-90%+ dominance), especially in separation/processing of the materials. Recently, they have gone as far as to ban key processing/separation materials needed, posturing to protect their interests in the face of American policy strides to distance themselves from their grip over the market. They have also kept costs of lithium and other precious earth and minerals artificially low, stymieing western incentive to establish their own supply chain.

China has been *SO* effective at doing all of this, that until the last few years, there was **ZERO** mining/processing of rare earth happening domestically in the USA. The picture wasn’t much better for other crucial metals and resources, such as lithium and titanium. We slept too long, took them for granted, and now here we are.

Don’t understand the stakes? Here is Marco Rubio, our secretary of state who has recently opened up negotiations with Russia over Ukraine, being an absolute doomer about the supply chain. Here is an article he wrote recently on the matter too. Lindsey Graham -another key Trump ally - also has eyes on the issue, especially as it pertains to Ukraine and what they may offer us for security (check out these tweets here and here. Oh and remember that scandal with Boeing having compromised metals in their planes? Yep, that's also because of the supply chain being decoupled from the west and this issue is only going to become a bigger thorn in the side of western interests as time goes on and demand continues to grow.

Let me be clear that this is a bipartisan issue and it is *extremely* difficult to deny the threat this poses to our national security and economic prosperity (the previous administration came to the same conclusion). That is why it has been a priority of both administrations. However, this present iteration of the Trump administration is uniquely situated to set the market ablaze in ways that previous administrations could not.

Part II. Trump Administration, Republican Majorities, Cosmetics, and Converging Interests

Alright, so we've established that the US is seriously threatened by China’s stranglehold over this sector. Great. So what is this administration and other key players in the industry doing about it? Here are a few points that I find compelling in making the case for the mining industry about to have a massive run.

First, let me introduce you to Ronald S. Lauder, heir to the Estée Lauder cosmetics company. For whatever reason, this guy has a real penchant for minerals and mining. He is close friends with Donald Trump and is, according to the NY times, the one that initially led Trump to turn his attention to Greenland. He is also very interested in Ukrainian minerals and metals.

You see, Ronald Lauder is a business partner of Brian Menell, CEO of private investment/equity firm TechMet, which seeks to expand production of precious minerals across our global assets to help ensure a secure and sustainable supply of the key metals for western-aligned interests.

If there is one company to look at and one company alone, it is TechMet. Recently, they have secured 180 million from QIA (Saudi fund). They are also DOE and DFC contractors with extremely lucrative deals over the last few years. Furthermore, what makes them unusual is that the DFC decided against their usual financing terms and actually went ahead and bought a direct stake in TechMet itself. That means the US Federal Government is a stakeholder directly aligned with the interests and priorities of TechMet.

As if this was not enough, TechMet also has the investment/backing of energy behemoth Mercuria. They also hold advisory members and business partners from big name mining companies like Rio Tinto. Furthermore, their current chairman is Admiral Mike Mullen who was previously Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, as well as on the board of General Motors. Suffice to say that their present reach and influence over western government is compelling as anything I have ever seen before. 

If you are curious, here is Brian Menell, two or so weeks ago, discussing the present state of the administration and supply chain issues here. He is bullish about this administration and highlights what needs to happen in order to compete with China effectively. 

What does he stress? Permitting, Bureaucracy Reform, Federal Incentivization. He calls on the administration to lift regulations, give permits quickly, purchase directly and invest in western-aligned companies that are working on the energy transition. Trump is doing *exactly* this, from establishing the sovereign wealth fund, to the guidance issued by way of two executive actions “Unleashing American Energy”, as well as  “Unleashing Prosperity through Deregulation.”

I recommend you read the language, especially Section 9 of the executive order on energy. The order seeks to “establish our position as the leading producer and processor of non-fuel minerals, including rare earth minerals, which will create jobs and prosperity at home, strengthen supply chains for the United States and its allies, and reduce the global influence of malign and adversarial states” as well as “to protect the United States' economic and national security and military preparedness by ensuring that an abundant supply of reliable energy is readily accessible in every State and territory of the Nation”

By way of the executive orders, federal agencies are instructed (within 60 days) to identify and eliminate barriers to efficient private investment and reduce project timelines for critical energy. Trump also instructs that priority should be placed on making sure USA funds critical mineral ventures and he also instructs to make sure the USA has an adequate stockpile of critical minerals/metals (and to purchase more if not). Emphasis is also placed on geologic mapping, and key western partnerships that share national  security interests, called the “Quad.” If you are interested in further reading on this last point, I recommend this article on Quadrilateral Mineral Partnerships.

Here is another item in the order on Unleashing American Energy:

(j) Within 60 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of State, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, the United States Trade Representative, and the heads of any other relevant agencies, shall submit a report to the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy that includes policy recommendations to enhance the competitiveness of American mining and refining companies in other mineral-wealthy nations.

Trump is not a patient man. He will act quickly after receiving this report in March and he is already trying his best to wrap up Ukraine as quickly as possible too with assurances of mineral access. That's why I believe the shortest timeline to return is now to the end of Trump's term.

Furthermore, I believe that Trump's team began negotiations without Ukraine precisely because they are seeking to get the best minerals deal possible. Russian advances on Ukraine have meant that many of the precious minerals the west is interested in now falls within Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine. Having 50% of the rights to Ukraine's rare earth is not all that great, given this reality\*\*. There is no guarantee that Ukraine will win the war (or when), nor is there a guarantee they will ever regain the territory.\*\* Meanwhile, the US would presumably continue to pump money into Ukraine with no end in sight? Trump isn't going to be OK with that. I think he is working out a post-war deal with Russia that makes certain that minerals will be available immediately.

Part III: Positions

Where to invest? Well, Techmet is private. However, there are still plays that can be made in this sector.

MP materials is presently the only rare earth mine and processor in the United States.

LYS is AU but part of "The Quad" that Trump opens the door for investments towards when he writes "(k) The Secretary of State shall consider opportunities to advance the mining and processing of minerals within the United States through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue."

UUUU is largely uranium although they are branching out. I'm bullish on it because of this language: "(c)  The Secretary of the Interior shall instruct the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey to consider updating the Survey’s list of critical minerals, including for the potential of including uranium."

IPX is an up-and-coming titanium processing w/ a special patent.

TLOFF is nickel, partnered with TSLA

ABAT is US lithium batteries supply/recycling

I'll close with this. Brian Menell, after meeting Mr. Zelensky in NY alongside other energy executives in September, had this to say in a statement:

TechMet, together with our partners, is available to move forward with further work if the U.S. and Ukrainian governments instruct us to do so"

Western interests will be ready at a moments notice. Will you be?

Disclaimer: I am not in the business of giving financial advice. That is, I am not a financial advisor. None of what I say here is a recommendation to hold or not hold shares or other instruments of any particular company or series of companies. All that is contained on my page is research in which I convey and substantiate personal views and commentary about where sectors, economic policies, industries, so on, may go. As always, please do your own research and understand the risks involved before placing any trades. I am not responsible for any of the decisions you choose to make.