Understanding Your Next Play In Critical Minerals

Who will be next to receive Department of Defense funding?

I wanted to touch base to tell you all about how I’ve been considering new fund allocations across the sector, especially given that we have begun to see sizable upside. I also wanted to point out a potential catalyst across the industry broadly, but especially for particular minerals and rare earths.

I. DASH, FAST-41, and YOU, a primer

The federal government has a initiative called (Defense Authorization for Strategic and High‑Tech). Speaking in terms of minerals initiative—it presents as an investment/funding program linked to DPA, DOE, or DoD aimed at accelerating U.S. supply chains in critical minerals (like graphite, rare earths, etc.). It focuses on grants, offtake agreements, and financial backing. They also have a dashboard called FAST-41. This is primarily for permitting and regulatory approvals related to infrastructure, including mining and critical minerals.

As we have seen with the recent MP <-> Pentagon deal, the US government isn’t joking around about providing significant backing to promising rare earth and critical minerals companies that process, mine, and develop product domestically. They have outright said it themselves - they are aiming to provide more funding, and fast.

We can use DASH and FAST-41 to our advantage to help us make investment choices as this run extends across the industry. I expect further DoD funding to trickle in within the next few weeks. Here are some compelling contenders for federal funding and incentivization, analyzed by their relationship with the federal government (existing contracts, speculation, FAST designation, or beyond).

UCORE Rare Metals (UURAF): Strategically placed with exposure to both US and Canadian government investments, this company has compelling technology for the separation of Heavy Rare Earths. They have recently been awarded a DoD grant.

Energy Fuels (UUUU): As both a uranium producer and a producer of rare earth oxides (most recently announcing heavy rare earth oxide production), this company is well-poised for significant government investment.

American Battery Technology (ABAT): Leading in battery recycling, this company has relationships with big names like TESLA and ties to federal funds.

Graphite One (GPHOF): This company has the potential to be come a vertically integrated graphite source. China’s grip over graphite processing is equally as dominant as their grip over rare earth processing.

WestWater Resources (WWR): Also a graphite producer, this company is well-poised for support from Washington. Recently, the administration announced import tariffs on graphite anode from China. That’s big news.

Lithium Americas (LAC): North America’s largest lithium deposit with big name partnerships (e.g. GM invested $650 million dollars into it). This one is as obvious a play as I have ever seen.

The Metals Company (TMC): High risk, high reward. They are awaiting permitting news in the next few months. Unprecedented plan to retrieve minerals from the ocean floor.

I also continue to believe in further upside at MP materials, despite their already magnificent run and news.

II. Import Tariffs via Section 232

In April, Trump initiated a Section 232 investigation into the national security threat that critical minerals pose. Likewise as with Copper, and as we have seen with Graphite just yesterday (linked above), we are likely to see tariffs roll out on further minerals by way of this investigation. After the report is completed, Trump will have a short amount of time to decide whether to impose tariffs or not on the industry.

Which minerals, though? Theoretically, most of them, as they all are strategic to defense. However, our production capacity is not high for certain areas yet (e.g. heavy rare earths), so what will happen exactly is not known to me entirely.

That being said, we know that the administration is not afraid of stepping up to China boldly, nor are they afraid of import controls and tariffs. This is an area to watch carefully. I expect announcements in the next weeks to months, if not sooner.

Lithium in particular stands out to me. Chinese price-gouging of the spot price has made it almost impossible for domestic producers to be able to compete. Take that information as you wish!

That’s all for now folks.

Love,
Steve

Disclaimer: I am not in the business of giving financial advice. That is, I am not a financial advisor. None of what I say here is a recommendation to hold or not hold shares or other instruments of any particular company or series of companies. All that is contained on my page is research in which I convey and substantiate personal views and commentary about where sectors, economic policies, industries, so on, may go. As always, please do your own research and understand the risks involved before placing any trades. I am not responsible for any of the decisions you choose to make.