How to Profit Off The Trade War (Second Post on Critical Minerals, April 3, 2025)

Hello everyone,

This morning, I wanted to discuss the implications of the trade war for your investment strategies. I get the sense that many of you are misunderstanding what is happening right now. Retail investors consider this to be the beginning of a bear market. But they don’t realize that a bear market in one sector can mean tremendous opportunity in another. Institutional investors consider this to be the beginning of a major sector rotation into a sector that has been massively undervalued and neglected: American industry, energy, and materials. I am going to explain how you can come to understand all of this as an opportunity.

Those that follow my posts on mining, infrastructure, energy transitions know that I have been anticipating continued actions (including steep tariffs) by the present administration to combat Chinese influence over critical mineral and metal supply chains. My entire portfolio has more-or-less been restructured from the beginning of the  term with this background assumption in mind. My research over the last months has focused on understanding which companies stand to benefit from increased import/export controls. Again, my emphasis is on domestic metals, minerals, and mining specifically.

I. Context Setting

My thesis remains fundamentally unchanged. It is as follows:

Thesis/Summary: the mining industry presents a massive opportunity anywhere from right now to the end of the present US administration and hopefully beyond. The investments that will matter most have to do with the processing, extraction, separation, and manufacturing of titanium, lithium, and rare earth minerals deemed critical. These investments must be allied with western interests, ideally operating in the United States. The issue that is most relevant is the complete market dominance China has over these metals and rare earth minerals. 

In the past, I have supported this position by examining the present administration’s executive orders, legislative agenda, as well as conducting an analysis of major hedge fund and institutional holdings beginning 2024 Q4. In this post, I will instead point out the general features of my most treasured investments which have earned them the right to exist in my portfolio.